Simple temperature scenario for a Gulf Stream induced climate change
Published in Climatic Change 37, 505-512, doi:10.1023/A:1005341324954 in 1997
A. M. G. Klein Tank, and G.P. Können
Consequences of a Gulf Stream induced ocean surface cooling for the temperature climate of Western Europe were studied by means of a conditional perturbation of the observed daily temperature time series of the Netherlands. On days with advection of air masses of maritime origin, the observed temperatures in the series were lowered with a fixed value, representing the influence of a cooler Atlantic Ocean. On the other days, the observed temperatures were left unchanged. The perturbation results in a decrease in the mean temperature that is almost constant over the year, and in a change in the standard deviation of the daily temperatures that is seasonally dependent. Due to preferential cooling of warm winter days, the standard deviation decreases in the winter, whereas in the other seasons the standard deviation increases as a result of preferential cooling of days with low temperatures. Although this ocean cooling scenario indicates an increase of the relative frequency of cold winters and cool summers, it is neither characterized by the occurrence of winters with unprecedented low temperatures nor by the disappearance of summer heat waves.